Honest SONA 2026 - Addressing the Crisis, the Symptoms and the Root Cause

My fellow South Africans, today is a difficult day because when a politician is called to discuss the state of the nation, the temptation is always to present things in a way that would ensure that I, the government that I preside over, and the party that I represent is presented in the best possible light.

And so the temptation is to cherry-pick when talking about success and to shift blame and scapegoat when certain failures cannot be ignored.

But doing that would serve no one other than myself. And so, in order to truly discuss the state of the nation, I have to be brutally honest.

And so, on a day like today, it is my responsibility to prioritise fact over fiction; truth over narrative; and solutions over grandstanding.

I represent a government. And even though a government is not a business or a private enterprise, a government has to be run and managed on the principles of business, management and leadership that transcend what is required merely in private enterprise. This is because the principles of corporate governance are not limited to the private sector.

And perhaps the most basic principle that any leader should adhere to when making decisions is this: Face the brutal facts.

No business, enterprise or government can be run without a proper recognition of the facts. So let’s talk about the facts in South Africa…

Facing the facts

This beloved country stands at a crossroads, facing a deep and interconnected crisis that touches every corner of our lives. The statistics paint a sobering picture, one we cannot ignore if we are committed to building the future that the peoples of this country deserve.

So, let’s start with the economy and jobs. Unemployment remains painfully high at around 32%, with more than 8 million people without work… and that is according to the narrow definition of unemployment (excluding people who are not working and who are not looking for work). For young people—those aged 15 to 24—the rate climbs to nearly 60%. That’s six out of ten people, nearly two thirds. It’s not just a number. It’s hope destroyed, a fleeting dream, a family that cannot put food on the table.

The economy is not growing in any tangible sense of the word, with growth often below 2%, trapped in what we, the ANC, like to call a triangle of poverty, inequality and unemployment, which, if we were to be brutally honest, is not a problem of inequality as much as it is a problem of poverty and unemployment - because the only real way to address inequality in a way that would improve the livelihoods of people is to do what is necessary for the economy to grow, and thus, for poverty and unemployment to shrink.

The problem here is that people find it increasingly difficult to start businesses, employ people and so forth, because of government red tape, political intervention through BEE, exclusionary race laws and growing concerns about property rights.

Then there is crime, which strikes fear into communities every day. South Africa still has one of the highest murder rates globally—around 45 murders per 100 000 people every year, as opposed to the global average of 6 per 100 000.

We do not know the true extent of sexual crimes in this country, because so many of these crimes go unreported, but we recognise that, by all available indicators, this country has become the rape capital of the world.

On energy, there has been some progress, at least on the output side. Load-shedding has dropped dramatically, with minimal interruptions in the past year and longer stretches of stable power. While Eskom’s improved performance deserves credit, we must also recognise the vital role played by ordinary people, communities and businesses generating their own power through rooftop solar - surging to over 6,000 megawatts of capacity - that has directly lightened the load on the national grid and helped slash load-shedding to minimal levels in recent years.

This is a welcome relief, yet the underlying issues of mismanagement at the government’s power supplier linger on.

Corruption continues to erode trust and hold us back. South Africa’s score on the Corruption Perceptions Index sits at 41 out of 100 - unchanged and below the global average - reflecting perceptions of widespread graft.

The Zondo Commission uncovered extensive corruption involving high-level officials, including fraud at the State Security Agency, Gupta family influence in public enterprises like Transnet, and the deliberate weakening of institutions to facilitate graft during Jacob Zuma's presidency. Despite these revelations detailing billions in misappropriated funds and systemic abuse, prosecutions have been limited, with only a handful of convictions, and no senior officials prosecuted.

The Madlanga Commission has exposed deep-rooted corruption, including the "Big Five" cartel's infiltration of police, prosecutors, intelligence services, and the judiciary, as well as the neutralisation of 121 investigation dockets related to political assassinations in KwaZulu-Natal. Testimonies have highlighted murders of whistleblowers and witnesses, such as Armand Swart and Marius van der Merwe, underscoring a culture of impunity. As the Madlanga inquiry is ongoing into 2026, no major prosecutions have stemmed from its findings yet, reflecting persistent failures in holding implicated figures accountable and protecting those who expose corruption.

The fact is as clear as daylight: when politicians steal public money, it drains resources from schools, hospitals, roads, basic service delivery and the police. And when a politician such as myself does not ensure that corruption is exposed and those responsible are prosecuted, we become complicit.

Education is a serious crisis. Yes, as we lower the requirements to pass, we find that the pass rate increases, and we eagerly celebrate this. And so, the 2025 matric pass rate reached a record 88%, the highest ever, with over 900,000 learners and strong performances across provinces and districts. The unstated fact is, however, that South Africa has some fantastic schools - on par with the best in the world, but that those schools are islands of hope in a sea of despair. The fact remains that 80% of schools in this country are dysfunctional. Nearly a third of schoolchildren drop out before matric, putting the "real" throughput rate at closer to 57%. Foundational learning is in trouble—81% of Grade 4 children cannot read for meaning. Thousands of qualified young people are turned away from universities each year, and dropouts in higher education remain high.

All of this is compounded by service delivery failures. Millions lack reliable water, sanitation, or refuse removal, with infrastructure decaying and municipalities drowning in debt and poor governance. There are increased reports of people dying because of the water they drink, which is one of the worst things that a government can be responsible for. Protests over broken promises, including sewage spills, water cuts and potholed roads erupt regularly, signaling deep frustration with local government. And, we recognise that, in this country, only 16% of South Africa's 257 municipalities achieved clean audits.

Adding to this strain is the country’s fiscal crisis—what many call the fiscal cliff. Government spending is increasingly locked into just three big items:

1. compensation for public servants (including salaries and benefits), which covers around 1,3 million people across national and provincial levels and costs the fiscus approximately R814.5 billion annually in the 2025 budget;
2. social grants that support millions, reaching over 28 million recipients (including the Social Relief of Distress grant) and amounting to around R280 billion in annual expenditure for 2024/25–2025/26;
3. the growing cost of servicing South Africa’s national debt through interest payments, with gross loan debt standing at about R5.8 trillion (around 78% of GDP) as of mid-2025 and annual debt-service costs projected at roughly R380–R400 billion or 5% of GDP.

Together, these mandatory commitments consume a massive share of the budget, with non-interest spending heavily tilted toward grants and employee costs (around 60% or more of non-interest expenditure), while debt-service costs alone take up about 15–18% of total spending and over 20% of revenue in recent projections. All of this leaves close to zero room for new investments in infrastructure, building schools, or fixing broken services, as rising debt and wage agreements push these fixed costs higher each year. And that’s not considering the extent to which corrupt politicians are feeding from the trove of the little that remains.

It is abundantly clear: This country is headed for disaster. Intervention will come, change will come, reform will come, because it cannot carry on like this. And that is why it’s better for us, as the government, to participate in facilitating this change, than to become silent spectators to our own growing irrelevance.

But all of these facts that I have discussed deal with the symptoms of a deeper-rooted crisis. Let’s talk about the actual crisis - the sustainability of the political dispensation in South Africa. It doesn’t matter what we, the government, believe. The evidence is clear: People, citizens of this country, the various communities that live in South Africa, regardless of race or creed, have lost faith in the system.

And this is measurable in a variety of ways:

Voter turnout tells a stark story of disillusionment. In South Africa’s national election in 1994, nearly 87% of registered voters turned out. By 2019, that had fallen to 66%, and in the 2024 national elections, it hit a historic low of just 58.6% among registered voters—meaning only about 16.3 million out of 27.8 million registered people cast ballots. When viewed against the broader population, turnout as a share of the voting-age or eligible population is even lower, estimated around 40%, reflecting millions who are unregistered or simply chose not to participate. This steady decline signals that fewer and fewer citizens see elections as a meaningful way to shape their future.

Recent surveys confirm this deep pessimism. In late 2025, an Ipsos study found that 80% of people in South Africa believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. This is particularly significant, given that there were high hopes among many that the Government of National Unity (that includes politicians from opposition parties) would get the country back on track.

An Afrobarometer survey shows a dramatic shift in identity: In 2011, 70% of people in this country identified mostly or only as “South African”. That number has dropped to 16%. This is because people increasingly identify, not as “South African”, but as citizens of their respective communities - their ethnic and cultural identities.

Trust in key institutions like Parliament, political parties, and leaders remains low, with satisfaction in democracy dropping sharply and majorities expressing significant disapproval of how Members of Parliament perform.

Even more telling, older Afrobarometer data from around 2018 revealed that 62% of people in South Africa said that they would be willing to give up elections - their right to vote, the most basic foundation of democracy - in exchange for security, housing, and jobs—a figure that rose to 72% in some later reports amid growing frustration. These attitudes reflect a profound erosion of confidence in the democratic process, where many feel promises remain unfulfilled and their voices go unheard.

These challenges do not exist in isolation. Poor education feeds into youth unemployment, which fuels inequality and crime. Corruption weakens institutions, from energy to municipalities, making service delivery harder.

The extent of this crisis is clear—it demands urgent, honest action from all of us. We cannot sugarcoat the pain, but we also cannot lose faith in our ability to turn things around. Together, with resolve and unity, we can address these root causes and build a South Africa where every citizen has a real chance to thrive.

So, I have discussed the symptoms of the crisis with you, and I have explained that there is a deeper rooted crisis from which these symptoms sprout.

This begs the question: What do we do now?

I believe the answer is this: First, we need to stop the bleeding - we need to do what needs to be done right now to improve things as soon as possible. But also, we need to recognise that while putting a band-aid on a broken leg might stop the bleeding, it will not fix the fracture.

So, while we stop the bleeding, we need to address the root cause. Having said that, here is what needs to be done.

Addressing the symptoms

To stop the bleeding and turn things around in the short term, we must act decisively on the symptoms we've discussed.

One, to stop strangulation by regulation, we need to deregulate - cutting the endless red tape that strangles businesses, making it easier to start companies, hire workers, and grow the economy without layers of bureaucracy holding everyone back.

Two, we will scrap the exclusionary race laws, including BEE and affirmative action quotas, which have not empowered the masses but enriched a connected elite while trapping millions in poverty and excluding others from opportunities.

Three, we’ll abandon expropriation without compensation once and for all, guaranteeing property rights for everyone to build confidence, boost investment, and protect farms from unproductive takeovers that have failed over 90% of the time.

Four, we shall scrap the PIE Act and replace it with a law that prioritises the rights of legal landowners over those of illegal land invaders, siding with those who abide by the law by making it easier for people to get illegal invaders off their property.

Five, on crime, we will partner with rural communities, farmers, and local groups to prevent attacks, providing resources for community safety programs and prioritising farm murders with dedicated task forces, rather than denying or downplaying them.

Six, we must scrap the BELA Act, which centralises control over schools and undermines community involvement in education, allowing parents and local leaders to shape curricula that fit their needs. In education, we'll focus on foundational skills with targeted programs to teach reading and math early, while expanding vocational training to match market needs.

Seven, to fight corruption, we will hand over the Zondo and Madlanga Commissions' recommendations to independent private prosecutors, ensuring those who stole billions face justice without political interference shielding the powerful.

Eight, we need to reform our fiscal approach by freezing public sector wage hikes above inflation, phasing out inefficient grants where jobs can replace them, and redirecting savings to infrastructure repairs like fixing water leaks that waste more than 40% of the country’s supply.

Nine, for energy, we need to break Eskom’s monopoly on electricity generation and encourage more private generation through incentives. This requires fully unbundling Eskom, establishing an independent grid operator to guarantee fair access, cutting red tape for independent power producers, and allowing municipalities and businesses to procure electricity directly from private suppliers. Energy security depends on competition and diversification, not a single state-controlled entity.

Ten, on race relations, we shall treat incitement of violence for what it is: a crime that ought to be prosecuted. And we shall regard incitement of violence by influential politicians as crimes deserving of incarceration with minimum sentences, especially when directed at ethnic or religious minority communities.

These steps aren't radical—they're practical fixes to ease the pain now and create breathing room for real change.

Addressing the root cause

But to heal the broken leg, we must tackle the root cause: the country’s centralised political system that has become disconnected from the diverse nations and communities across this vast region we call South Africa. As government, we can facilitate decentralisation and self-governance by starting with recognition—acknowledging cultural and traditional authorities for what they are. Our task as government is not to give them authority, but to recognise the authority that they already have in their communities. Nations, peoples and communities should have real, tangible power over their own affairs, including education, land use, and justice in ways that respect ethnic identities without division.

We will devolve more authority to provinces and municipalities, allowing them to manage budgets, services, and laws tailored to their unique needs, reducing the stranglehold from Pretoria that stifles innovation. But we also recognise that within these provinces and municipalities, there are different communities, with different conceptions of the role of government and the duties of the state. The solution lies not in enforcing a singular conception onto all, but in providing for diversity in the real sense of the word by allowing these communities to govern themselves.

To build trust, we'll have national dialogues with communities, including Afrikaners, Zulus, Xhosas, the Coloured community and others, to explore autonomy models like expanded territorial self-rule in areas such as the Western and Northern Cape and KwaZulu Natal, where movements for independence already show strong support. But the difference is that this dialogue will not be controlled or dictated by me or the ruling party, but by the communities we intend to engage with.

This could mean supporting de facto self-governing settlements, with infrastructure partnerships—expanding railways, ports, and airports in the Western parts of the country to foster growing self-determination. If needs be, we will change the Constitution to facilitate this, but the changes will not come from the president or the ruling party, but from the communities themselves, precisely because we recognise that democracy and majoritarianism are not the same thing.

Finally, as a bridge to sustainability, we'll invite international partners, especially from countries with which we trade significantly, to advise on these reforms, tying aid and trade to progress in freedom and stability. This isn't about breaking the country—it's about empowering its peoples to govern themselves, shifting responsibility from a failing centre to vibrant communities.

If we act with courage, South Africa can become a mosaic of thriving nations, united in purpose yet free in practice.

Thank you, and may God bless South Africa.

Lex Libertas is a think tank and advocacy group working towards a viable political dispensation in South Africa, based on the principles of freedom, decentralisation, and self-governance.

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