The American midterm elections have resulted in a significant political shift. The Republicans suffered a serious setback, while the Democrats succeeded in gaining control of both chambers of the US Congress.

There are already people on social media who are celebrating the result and trying to portray it as a setback for Lex Libertas, particularly in light of our recent White Cross Project in Washington. The Trump administration is playing a significant role in drawing international attention to the crisis in South Africa. This is precisely why there is so much interest in these developments from South Africa. We believe that this will continue, firstly because Trump is still the president, and secondly because even the Democrats are frustrated by the South African government's reckless conduct.

Now, I must say two things.

First: We are not Americans, and this was not our election. Nevertheless, it would be useful for us to reflect briefly on the lessons we can learn from it.

Second: We must remember that it is perfectly normal for the American political pendulum to swing back and forth. In particular, it is the norm for a sitting president to lose support, and for the president's party to lose ground in midterm elections.

With this in mind, there are certain observations we can make about the election, and certain lessons we can learn from it.

A new balance of power in America

The American midterm elections take place halfway through a president's term. The president himself is not up for election, but all 435 members of the House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the members of the Senate appear on the ballot.

Before the election, the Republicans controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress. This gave President Donald Trump considerable political room to advance his policy priorities.

That is about to change.

The Democrats have gained control not only of the House of Representatives, but also of the Senate. This means that, from January 2027, Trump will have to deal with a Congress in which his political opponents hold the majority.

The practical implications are significant. It will be more difficult to pass new legislation, approve budgets and confirm appointments. The Democrats will also have greater authority to launch investigations into the administration and exert political pressure on the president.

Trump remains president, however, and the US Constitution continues to grant extensive powers to the executive branch, particularly in foreign affairs. Removing the president from office is not nearly as simple as some would have us believe.

The result therefore does not mean that the Trump administration has suddenly become powerless. It does mean that the political circumstances under which it must operate have become considerably more difficult.

Why did the Republicans lose support?

The reasons for the Republican setback will undoubtedly be debated for a long time. It would be wrong to attribute the outcome to a single event or person.

One of the most important factors is growing dissatisfaction among American voters with the economy, particularly the cost of living. The war with Iran placed further pressure on fuel prices and caused divisions over American foreign policy.

It is also clear that the Republicans did not succeed in mobilising the same political enthusiasm that Trump generated during the 2024 presidential election.

By contrast, a significant portion of the Democratic electorate was motivated less by any particular enthusiasm for the Democratic Party than by opposition to Trump.

Although Trump himself was not on the ballot, the election was therefore, to a considerable extent, a referendum on his presidency.

It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the problem lies merely in Trump's personal popularity. Over the past decade, Trump has demonstrated an exceptional ability to mobilise voters who had not necessarily shown much interest in the Republican Party before.

But the ability to build a political movement around a charismatic leader is not the same as the ability to keep that movement together over an extended period.

There are also growing divisions among conservative Americans over several issues. These include American involvement in the Middle East, relations with Israel, the handling of the Epstein affair, and the 'podcast wars' between prominent personalities with substantial followings.

The Republican Party and the future of MAGA

A remarkable feature of American politics is that political enthusiasm does not necessarily develop around the established political parties themselves, but often around movements associated with those parties.

Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement, better known as MAGA, is an excellent example.

MAGA began as an election slogan but developed into a political movement with its own identity, supporters, think tanks, media personalities, organisations and political priorities.

In certain respects, MAGA even began shaping the identity of the Republican Party, rather than the other way around. MAGA became, in a sense, bigger than the Republican Party.

Something similar is happening on the Democratic side, where progressive movements and democratic socialists are exerting increasing influence on the party's ideological direction. The most obvious examples are Black Lives Matter (BLM) and the woke movement. Unlike MAGA, these movements do not revolve around a leader, but rather around a grievance (in BLM's case) and an ideology (in the case of wokeness).

The question, however, is what will become of MAGA.

A survey conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst found as early as August that the percentage of Republicans who identified with MAGA had declined by nine percentage points since March. This does not mean that MAGA has disappeared. On the contrary, a majority of Republicans still indicated that they identified with the movement to at least some extent.

It does, however, suggest that the movement is struggling with growing tensions.

Almost all presidents lose support while in office. The same applies to Trump, who is, in any event, approaching the end of his career. MAGA will either have to associate itself with new leadership or be replaced by something else.

In this context, there is increasing talk of America First. The phrase is, of course, not new, and has long formed part of Trump's own political approach. Some groups, however, now use it to describe an alternative political movement that either wants to go beyond MAGA or return to MAGA's original principles, depending on whom you ask.

It is still too early to declare that America First is replacing MAGA. The groups using this name differ sharply among themselves, and some radical figures who identify with it hold positions that are by no means shared by the broader conservative movement.

Conspiracy theories

There is another problem that is becoming increasingly apparent among conservative American political movements: the tendency to interpret almost every significant event through the lens of a conspiracy theory.

Here I would like to say something about a contradiction in my own thinking. I am not naturally interested in conspiracy theories, mainly because I regard them as paralysing and would rather focus on things we can actually do something about. Yet reality sometimes overtakes my scepticism about scepticism, because the list of conspiracy theories that sound absurd at first glance but later turn out to be true is disturbingly long.

This creates a serious problem. People should be sceptical, and doubt is a good thing. But it is equally unhelpful to become, as a growing number of Americans on the right appear to have done, addicted to doubt. A society that interprets every single event by default as the result of a conspiracy immediately stagnates. America is therefore caught in a vicious circle: conspiracy theories are paralysing, yet those who concern themselves with them are regularly vindicated (Epstein is but one example). A growing number of people now doubt almost everything, and there is scarcely an issue left in the American debate that does not descend into an argument about conspiracy theories.

What does this mean for us?

Let us be clear: There is considerably more common ground between the principles we promote at Lex Libertas and those of many American conservatives than between us and the contemporary progressive movement.

But this does not mean that we can or should unconditionally endorse the Republican Party, MAGA, or any American political leader.

We must explicitly acknowledge the particularly significant role that the Trump administration has played in relation to South Africa in recent times. Trump is the most powerful person in the world. He has become one of the most consequential figures in South African history, and no American president has ever done so much to confront destructive ideas in South Africa.

The administration has drawn international attention to the crisis surrounding the persecution and marginalisation of minorities in South Africa. It has expressly questioned the discriminatory policy framework, threats to property rights and political incitement against minorities.

President Trump's executive order of February 2025 was a historic event. In September this year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced further visa restrictions targeting individuals involved in certain forms of racial discrimination, incitement to violence and expropriation without compensation.

The administration has considerably increased diplomatic and economic pressure on the South African government.

These actions deserve appreciation.

It would, however, be a strategic mistake to make the future of any group in South Africa dependent on the political success of a single American president or party.

Trump is not our leader. His responsibility is to the American people, as it should be. Likewise, our responsibility is to our own country and our own communities.

We must therefore continue to build good relations with the Trump administration and make use of the opportunities that arise from them. But we must also broaden our international network, strengthen relations with other influential institutions and continually identify new opportunities.

That is what responsible international engagement requires.

The future belongs to those who seize opportunities

It is easy to view political developments exclusively as victories or defeats.

But history teaches us that political circumstances are constantly changing. Today's dominant political movement may come under pressure tomorrow, while new opportunities often arise precisely in times of uncertainty.

We must therefore not be naïve about the challenges arising from the American midterm elections. The change in Congress is significant and could certainly have implications for our international work.

But neither should we allow this development to plunge us into pessimism.

Our pursuit of freedom and self-government did not begin with Donald Trump. Nor will it end when his presidency comes to an end.

We must appreciate our friends, maintain our principles, assess reality soberly and make use of the opportunities available to us.

For the future does not necessarily belong to those who are best able to predict the political circumstances of the day, but to those who are prepared to respond to those circumstances responsibly and purposefully.